Updated: March 4, 2021
Originally Published: Oct. 30, 2014
In July of this year, three aircraft accidents occurred within just eight days. I distinctly recall a wave of anxious posts on social media following the third incident, with many expressing thoughts like, “What is happening in the skies?!” The timing couldn’t have been worse for me, as I was scheduled to fly to San Francisco the very next day. All this talk about flying being “riskier than we thought” certainly heightened my nerves.
Should I have felt anxious? Is it unusual for three plane crashes to happen in such a short span that it should make us question the safety of air travel? Dr. Samuel Fairweather, a statistician specializing in public risk from the University of Oxford, argues otherwise. While three crashes in eight days might initially seem improbable, statistical evidence indicates that such occurrences are actually quite common, with a probability of about sixty percent over any given decade.
Understanding True Randomness
What does randomness truly look like? The reality is, authentic randomness doesn’t align with our perceptions. Genuine random events tend to form clusters. For instance, stars scattered across the night sky often create recognizable groups. Similarly, plane crashes might occur randomly over many years, resulting in several incidents happening close together. When Apple launched the iPod Shuffle, users complained that the “random shuffle” feature didn’t seem random enough, as they would occasionally hear the same song play twice in a row. The company had initially designed it to be genuinely random, which meant it could repeat songs. Eventually, they modified it to appear less random to enhance user satisfaction. Quite ironic, isn’t it?
Our Cognitive Bias Toward Patterns
The concern expressed in those social media posts reveals more about human psychology than about aviation safety. Why are we so prone to overlook true randomness? Why do we perceive patterns and clusters and suspect there’s something more sinister at play? One factor is our innate tendency to seek patterns, even in the absence of any. Furthermore, humans often assign agency to random events, assuming that they are outcomes of intentional actions.
An evolutionary perspective sheds light on this behavior. Imagine living thousands of years ago, hearing a rustling sound in the bushes. It could be a predator or simply the wind. If you panic and flee, only to discover it was harmless, you might feel foolish. Conversely, if you dismiss it and discover a predator, the consequences could be dire. Clearly, those who tended to react to potential threats would be more likely to survive and pass on their genes.
Moreover, we often focus on clusters while ignoring the broader context. For instance, rolling five sixes in a row is astonishing; however, if you roll a die a thousand times, those five sixes become less surprising. Similarly, if you randomly select a person from the street and find an immediate connection, it might feel like fate—but what about all the other encounters you had along the way? By emphasizing the clusters—those rare, coincidental events—we overlook the vast number of possibilities that could have led to them. I’m not suggesting that fate didn’t play a role in your connection, but statistically, it was bound to happen eventually.
It’s understandable that humans have evolved to identify patterns in randomness and seek explanations for seemingly random events. While this instinct was beneficial in a perilous ancestral environment, it may lead to unnecessary anxiety in modern life. For example, it certainly made my flight anxiety much more pronounced than warranted on that day. If you’re interested in exploring more about the emotional aspects of conception, you might find this resource insightful.
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Summary
In summary, our brains are wired to perceive patterns, often leading us to misunderstand randomness. This tendency to see clusters and assign meaning to random events can cause unnecessary anxiety in our lives, as demonstrated by the reactions to recent plane crashes. Understanding how our cognitive biases shape our perceptions can help us navigate our fears more effectively.