It’s abundantly clear that we are living in extraordinary times. In fact, “out of control” feels like an understatement. Our daily routines have shifted dramatically over the past few months, and it’s challenging to envision what life will look like in the near future. One thing remains true: we are not in control; the virus is. As Dr. Sarah Mitchell wisely stated, “The virus dictates the timeline, not us.”
However, it is also evident that this situation will eventually pass. The lockdown will lift, and we won’t be confined to our homes indefinitely. But what will that post-pandemic normal actually entail?
Before delving deeper, it’s essential to emphasize this crucial point repeatedly: our longing for a return to normalcy cannot cloud our judgment. The World Health Organization has cautioned that rushing to lift social distancing measures could lead to a “dangerous resurgence” of the virus. Reports suggest that prematurely ending stay-at-home orders could result in a death toll that is alarmingly high—300,000 projected without mitigation versus 200,000 if restrictions are lifted prematurely.
While we all yearn for life to revert to its previous state, we must proceed with caution. This is a long-term situation, and it’s likely that we won’t return to our old lives anytime soon. In fact, experts from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health have indicated that, unless a vaccine or effective therapies are developed promptly, intermittent social distancing might be necessary until 2022.
Thus, we must prepare for a “new normal.” Humans are inherently resilient and adapt to their circumstances—though sometimes reluctantly.
I confess that I’ve become somewhat fixated on understanding how and when we might transition from our current quarantine lifestyle. The current reality is so unlike anything we’ve experienced that envisioning this “new normal” feels daunting.
Admittedly, part of my struggle with the lockdown stems from my previous naivety. I assumed that a “pandemic” was a term reserved for history books. I took our healthcare system for granted, believing it was equipped to handle any crisis. I was fortunate and blissfully ignorant, but that ignorance has been profoundly shaken.
We can no longer take for granted that vaccines will be available for all infectious diseases. We can’t rely on our leaders to prioritize our well-being (a realization that has been evident for some time). Most importantly, we must understand that certainty is elusive.
The post-quarantine landscape remains unclear. Until a widespread vaccine and effective treatments for COVID-19 are available, the threat of the virus will linger.
Does this mean we’ll remain confined to our homes for the next year and a half or longer? Probably not. Will life be drastically different? Absolutely.
Emerging from this collective quarantine is likely to be a gradual process. As noted by health experts, “We need to shut everything down to contain the virus. However, exiting this situation will not be as abrupt.”
For life to resemble anything close to a “new normal,” several key criteria must be met. Hospitals need adequate resources to handle COVID-19 cases and any potential surges. Widespread testing for anyone exhibiting symptoms is essential—reports suggest a minimum of 750,000 tests will be necessary. States must effectively monitor confirmed cases and their contacts, and there needs to be a sustained reduction in new cases for at least two weeks.
As Yale professor of epidemiology, Dr. Marcus Levin, asserts, “We are nowhere near achieving these benchmarks. Opening up too soon will only lead to a resurgence of the virus.”
Even after these conditions are fulfilled, our “new normal” will unlikely resemble life before the pandemic. The idea of going from total shutdown—where schools and businesses are closed—to a fully open society seems unrealistic. There is no switch to flip that will restore life as it was.
Currently, the government has urged everyone to maintain social distancing until the end of April, but many anticipate that our “new normal” will take longer to establish. Virginia, for example, has a shelter-in-place order effective until June 10, and various states have transitioned to remote learning for the rest of the school year. The best-case scenario seems to point towards children returning to classrooms in the fall.
While anticipating the future, we need to consider what the “new normal” will look like, especially for parents working from home. As we move forward, questions about playdates, youth sports, and outings to parks will arise. Currently, with stay-at-home orders in place, the answer to those questions is straightforward: No.
Once these restrictions are lifted, we may start to see some places reopen. When asked if life would feel more “normal” by summer, Dr. Mitchell expressed hope but cautioned, “The virus determines the schedule.”
Experts agree that the reopening process will vary by location and circumstance. “That’s how we will transition: gradually, based on the data,” said Dr. Robert Klein, a health official, on April 10.
Antibody tests could play a role in this new phase. If widely available, individuals who have immunity may return to regular activities sooner than those who are more vulnerable. Experts like Dr. Emily Carter propose frequent public screenings, particularly for healthcare and emergency response workers. “While we lack the capacity for this currently,” she remarked, “with the right funding and focus, it can become a reality.”
In the coming months, parents will need to navigate a landscape filled with gray areas and uncertainties. It is crucial to make informed decisions and avoid impulsive judgments during this recovery phase.
Insights from countries that have progressed further along in the pandemic can offer clues about what lies ahead. For instance, Germany, which implemented early social distancing measures, plans to resume soccer games in May—albeit in empty stadiums for television viewing only. Similarly, Major League Baseball in the U.S. is contemplating an “Arizona Plan” involving quarantined teams playing without fans in attendance. Dr. Mitchell has remarked that such scenarios could be feasible, but moving too quickly poses risks.
When gatherings do resume, they are likely to be smaller. Restaurants may operate with reduced capacity to ensure social distancing, and handshakes might become a relic of the past. Frequent handwashing, mandatory face masks, and temperature checks could become standard practices. For instance, Disney executives have suggested taking guests’ temperatures before entry.
Large events such as concerts and festivals will likely remain on hold for the foreseeable future, with virtual gatherings becoming the norm until effective treatments or a vaccine are available.
At Shanghai Disneyland, which reopened select areas after months of closure, strict guidelines have been established, including limited capacity and adjusted operating hours.
With smaller gatherings and reduced capacities, the anticipated economic surge may not materialize. Many of the millions currently unemployed will not return to their jobs right away. As we face these economic challenges, we must brace ourselves for a lengthy recovery.
Ultimately, it’s clear that our lives have been irrevocably changed, potentially for a long time. The “new normal” may involve more remote work, unexpected smiles exchanged with strangers, less travel, and a greater commitment to public health.
One thing is certain: the normal we once knew is gone. It’s time we all adjust to this “new normal.” After all, normal is subjective.
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