In the early stages of the pandemic, numerous memes circulated predicting a baby boom. The prevailing belief was that couples confined at home would inevitably turn to procreation. Many of these memes focused on partners without children grappling with quarantine and remote learning. Potential future children even earned nicknames like “coronials” and “quaranteens.”
However, rather than witnessing an increase in births, we are confronting a significant decline in birth rates. According to Dr. Mark Thompson, a sociologist at the University of Maryland, this decrease is the most substantial he has observed since the baby boom concluded in 1964. Various state health departments reported notable drops in birth rates as of December 2020—approximately nine months after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Preliminary figures indicate a decline of about 7.3% in births, with California experiencing a nearly 10% drop and Hawaii facing a staggering 30% decrease. Both states recorded around 35,000 fewer births that December.
While these statistics are alarming, the comprehensive impact of this baby bust remains to be seen. Initial birth data for the first half of 2021 will not be available until later this year, as noted by economist Dr. Sarah Lin, who is based at Wellesley College. Nevertheless, projections by Lin and her colleague, Dr. Anna Ross, estimate a reduction of roughly 300,000 births in 2021. Furthermore, a study revealed that Google searches related to contraception, sexual activity, and pregnancy significantly decreased in 2020.
What Caused the Baby Boom to Turn into a Baby Bust?
One possible reason for the anticipated baby boom being nothing more than a fleeting social media joke is highlighted by a survey conducted by the Family Planning Institute, which found that 40% of women altered their childbearing plans due to the pandemic. One-third of respondents indicated they intended to postpone pregnancy or limit the number of children they planned to have.
Historically, the decline in births following a pandemic is not unprecedented; the aftermath of the 1918 Spanish Flu also saw a notable drop in birth rates. The reasons for the current decline are likely multifaceted, involving social, economic, and emotional factors. Dr. Lisa Jenkins, an associate professor at the University of Southern California, explained in an interview that the economic fallout, ongoing health fears, uncertainty regarding medical care, and school closures make this an undesirable time for couples to expand their families.
What Does a Baby Bust Mean for Society?
A significant decrease in births may seem trivial on a personal level, but it can reflect broader societal issues and raise concerns for the future. According to Dr. Thompson, the decline in birth rates indicates that many individuals are facing challenges. “Whether one views having more children as positive or negative, the fact that we are experiencing fewer births suggests that numerous people are struggling,” he stated. It’s not surprising that those worried about their future, job security, or food and housing stability may hesitate to bring a child into the world.
In the long term, considering that the birth rate has been declining in the U.S. since 2007, this trend could have profound implications for the economy and social security systems. Fewer births lead to fewer adults entering the workforce, resulting in diminished contributions to social security funded by taxes from current workers. Dr. Lin explained, “Tracking children through their lifespans reveals that school enrollments will drop in coming years, leading to smaller cohorts entering college and, subsequently, the labor market.”
While a single year of reduced births may not be catastrophic for society and the economy, Dr. Lin cautioned that if the trend persists, there could be significant repercussions. The pressing question is whether a baby boom will follow the end of the pandemic. Researchers remain skeptical. “We anticipate some rebound, but we’re uncertain whether it will lead to an overshoot—a surge that counters the bust,” Dr. Jenkins conveyed to us. “The longer the economic and public health crisis lasts, the more likely it becomes that these births will not only be delayed but avoided altogether.”
Similar to many aspects of the pandemic, the full impact on birth rates may not be fully understood until we are well past this crisis, possibly taking years to unfold. Regardless, the consequences of the pandemic will be profound and subject to analysis for decades to come.
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Summary
The initial expectation of a baby boom during the pandemic has turned into a significant baby bust, with birth rates falling to historic lows. Factors contributing to this decline include economic uncertainty, health concerns, and altered family planning, reflecting a broader societal struggle. The long-term implications of this trend could impact the economy and social security systems, with researchers uncertain about a potential rebound in birth rates post-pandemic.