On October 28, 2020, approximately eight months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States recorded an alarming 81,000 new cases in a single day, with a staggering total of 500,000 cases that week. These numbers, while shocking, require context to understand their implications. Simply put, the U.S. remains far from controlling the virus, now entering what experts anticipate to be the largest and most prolonged wave of infections yet. As we navigate the impending cold weather and holiday season, it’s crucial to consider the local impact of these statistics and identify actionable steps.
Recently, specialists from COVIDEXITSTRATEGY.Org, Resolve to Save Lives, COVID Act Now, COVID19StatePolicy.Org, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy convened a webinar to discuss the current trends in COVID-19 cases and the effectiveness of mask mandates and social distancing measures. Here’s what I gathered from this informative session.
Yes, we are in a third wave, and it’s not solely due to increased testing.
Two facts must be acknowledged. Firstly, we are indeed experiencing a third wave. Debbie Lane from COVID Act Now noted, “We are currently at levels comparable to COVID’s highest peaks back in July.” Secondly, while testing has increased, this does not fully explain the surge in cases. Cyrus Shahpar from Resolve to Save Lives pointed out that we are likely only identifying about 20% of actual infections. The analogy of wildfires helps illustrate this: more smoke detectors may identify more fires, but the fires continue to burn regardless. In this analogy, COVID represents the wildfire, while testing serves as the smoke detectors, enabling us to understand the extent of the problem.
The third wave is affecting the Midwest and rural areas—regions previously spared.
There is a common misconception that COVID-19 primarily impacts coastal and urban centers. Initially, this was true, with states like California and New York suffering significant outbreaks. However, the landscape has changed. States in the Midwest, previously less affected, are now experiencing surges, with South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Montana reporting alarming case numbers exceeding 500 per million residents. This marks a concerning level of uncontrolled spread, as analyzed by COVIDEXITSTRATEGY.org. Rural communities, which house around 46 million Americans, are particularly vulnerable due to older demographics and higher rates of health issues, compounded by limited healthcare access.
High case numbers do not always correlate with the most severely impacted states.
There is considerable variability in testing rates across states. Some are testing five to ten times more than others. For instance, while North Dakota and South Dakota appear to have significant case numbers, Mississippi may be in a more dire situation due to its lower testing rates. Evaluating test positivity rates is another way to assess community spread. A high positivity rate indicates inadequate testing and suggests that areas like Wyoming, with a 55% positivity rate, are in a more alarming state than Montana, which has a higher raw case number but only a 14% positivity rate.
Mask mandates are effective, but require strong national messaging.
As cases rise and federal response wanes, it may seem that we lack tools to combat the virus. However, studies, such as one from Vanderbilt School of Medicine, indicate that areas with mask mandates experience lower hospitalization rates than those without. Mask mandates are also less disruptive economically than stringent social distancing measures, which may necessitate targeted lockdowns in high-transmission areas.
Amidst grim statistics, there is a glimmer of hope.
Watching the COVID-19 map shift from green to dark red can be disheartening, especially with mask-wearing becoming a divisive issue. However, there is a positive aspect: the infection growth rate. This rate indicates how quickly COVID is spreading. For example, a growth rate of 3 means each infected person transmits the virus to three others. As of the webinar, only Kansas reported a stable COVID-19 situation, while most states have a growth rate just above one, suggesting that each infected individual is passing the virus to roughly one other person. This is encouraging because it implies that, with proper measures, we can prevent further deterioration of the situation.
With colder weather pushing gatherings indoors and the holiday season approaching, it is crucial to remember the 3Ws: Wear a mask, wash your hands, and maintain distance.
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Summary:
The U.S. is experiencing a significant third wave of COVID-19, with alarmingly high case numbers across the country. This wave is particularly affecting the Midwest and rural areas, which were previously less impacted by the virus. Increased testing has revealed more cases, but the actual number of infections is still underestimated. Effective measures, such as mask mandates, can help control the spread, and optimism remains as growth rates indicate that the situation could improve with collective efforts.